Editor’s note: T3 looks forward to 2010 in a series of blog posts that offer insight on marketing trends over the next year.
In five years we’ll know whether our current recession is a defining moment for our consumer-driven society. Fortunately, it seems that it will not rank as another Depression, but I think that it will have a more lasting impact than the dot-com bust—altering consumer behavior and the role of marketing.
I think the world has suffered from an economic heart attack—painful, serious and treated through extreme measures. For some consumers, recovery is underway. Others are now cautiously optimistic. But for many, recovery will be unpredictable.
The result? The Boomer, Me, X and Millennial generations may have just morphed into a new Cautionary Generation.
A generation of savers. A generation committed to using less. A generation who now associates the amassing of stuff with the loss of financial cushions, secure retirement or the ability to pay their mortgage.
In April, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke spoke of “green shoots.” In September, President Obama said “we can be confident that the storms of the past two years are beginning to break.” Broad consumer confidence indexes have shown recent gains. Other forecasts project a more positive outlook for 2010, yet those same reports show job growth lagging. Even as stocks climb back, I sense that people are still bracing for another unexpected dip.
While there are hopeful signs, true recovery will be highly personal and impossible to time on a mass scale. Those who feel they survived the economic heart attack are likely to go into an aggressive form of preventative maintenance, with no back sliding on bad spending habits.
People have learned that they can do without and live happily. They’ve rediscovered coupons, soup and board games. They’ve learned the discipline of thinking twice, three or four times before making purchases. They’ve learned to research and shop and bargain.
Consumers have widened their consideration set, looking for lower-cost options, as well as brands that deliver more for the dollar. They’ve learned that brands must hold value beyond the name and cachet. Just as geeks are chic, so is being frugal—even flat-out “cheap.” Hyundai, Dunkin’ Donuts and Wal-Mart are some of the brands aligned with the new cautionary generation.
Smart marketing is always about context. In the context of the past year, do people even want to view themselves as consumers right now? Do you? People would rather be seen as providers, decision-makers or smart shoppers. The conventional definition of marketing should be recast, as well.
In 2010, consumer caution will persist. As a result, companies should provide people with information to make better decisions, appreciating that purchases may now come when people need stuff (and not just want stuff). They should look at content to support the long-term value of their brands, as well as points of relevant differentiation—time savings, ease-of-use and design.
Companies should look into their databases (or across the counters of their small businesses) and reach out to thank the people who have remained customers over the past year. At the same time, they should continue to invest in ideas, products and programs that delight these customers and get them talking to their friends, in person and digitally.
In a Special Report published in April, The Economist looked ahead and saw that “In the next couple of years the businesses that thrive will be those that are miserly with costs, wary of debt, cautious with cashflow and obsessively attentive to what customers want.”
If these companies turn a mirror to their customers and prospects, they may see the exact same traits.
