Everyone is predicting that the media recovery will lag behind the rest of the economy. Experts say we may not be out of the woods until the second half of 2010. Given that everyone misjudged how badly digital media would be hit this year, I’d venture to say that even late 2010 is optimistic, though I think there will be pockets of success and bargains to be had for those prepared to invest. 

This may be social media’s make-or-break year. I expect to see much more proof around the value of micro-targeting for non-long-tail advertisers, as well as for the value of friends and fans. It’s a balancing act to not overrun a wonderful forum with corporate messages and shills. If we, as advertisers, are clumsy in this space, we could end up really hurting it both for ourselves and our fellow social media users.

Mobile will be buoyed by the increasing sophistication and affordability of both the carrier networks and handsets, but is likely to remain a largely niche tactical tool. Because the phone is a two-way device, dialogue has to be part of the strategy in any mobile implementation. This, of course, is the basis of social media, so the good news is that those who master its application relative to specific goals within a social strategy should shine.

I’m still holding out hope for print, and I think we’re going to see good use of integration across digital and traditional platforms—a combination of bargain pricing and increased accountability will keep these options in play.

In my mind, everything hinges on what I call “turnkey accountability”—clear, unambiguous “results” that clients can take to the bank. We still bridge digital results very loosely to specific business objectives, and there’s still too much reliance on proxy-ing basic metrics for tangible goals. It gets even cloudier as social and viral strategies gain prominence, but it will be imperative to try and solve this over the next year.

What we’re likely to see more of this year is increasingly intertwined media and PR strategies, as well as a greater emphasis on communication strategies rather than media plans. This is a little alarming from a media professional’s standpoint, as it could imply that we do less buying and placing and more strategizing and collaborating as part of the media function. This is good in the long run because the actual investment is likely to shift away from space or time to the strategy itself. It’s bad because it acknowledges that media placements have become highly commoditized and because strategic planning is harder for agencies to package up and assign value to.

The near-term reality is that we’re likely to find ourselves trying to convince clients they need to spend nearly as much on the strategy and measurement of media as on the media itself. The problem is that while CPMs will continue to fall, the cost of determining effectiveness will remain high. The question then becomes whether the combined costs still compare favorably to the traditional perception of media efficiency.

Honestly, I don’t think 2010 is going to be all that pleasant, but I think we’re going to emerge with a higher degree of understanding and effectiveness than we’ve ever had before. If we don’t, I’m not sure we deserve to emerge at all.

Editor’s note: T3 looks forward to 2010 in a series of blog posts that offer insight on marketing trends over the next year.

Will 2010 be the year that mobile comes of age? The short answer is no. But the long answer isn’t quite so definitive. In fact, I think 2010 will be a very significant year for mobile, the year of foundation and infrastructure building, strategy development and planning for mobile’s eventual coming-out party.

Intriguing breakthroughs and amazing new apps will continue to tease us with possibilities. And mobile marketers will continue to focus on reaching highly sophisticated—and demanding—customers in new ways.

I think we’ll look back on 2010 as the year of significant developments. Among those that bear watching:

• The rise of smartphones. As smartphone numbers increase, so will Web traffic. SMS, mobile video and application downloads will also continue to flourish. The consumer’s reliance on their mobile phone will amplify as the phone becomes the primary digital device.

• This way to the mobile Web. The mobile Web will influence how we shop, search and gather information on the fly. Content publishers and brands will begin to realize how critical mobile Web sites are to their brand. Mobile commerce will thrive. One-click mobile buying will challenge brick-and-mortar models–as consumers go in-store to view and handle products but then search for best pricing on their phone and buy there if the price and experience is right.

• Flash for (most) smartphones. We may not see handsets with full Flash capability until the middle of 2010, but Flash will revolutionize the mobile Internet much the way it did the wired Web. Flash 10.1 will allow smartphone users to view most wired Web sites that currently use Flash. The content and structure of sites must be altered to be relevant for consumers on the go, but Flash is a dream for developers. As access to native handset features like the accelerometer, screen orientation and multi-touch gestures become available, the need for an application is minimized. For those still in love with iPhone apps, Flash Professional CS5 will allow developers to repurpose the Web experiences they develop, submit them to the app store and, voila, an iPhone app is born.

• Mobile money.  The launch of Nokia Money, which allows for peer-to-peer transactions through the phone, means the days of “I’ll get you next time for lunch” may be over, as transferring money becomes practically a non-issue. Tapping into the “unbanked” population becomes intriguing, to say the least (there are only 1.6 billion bank accounts and over 4 billion mobile phones worldwide—you do the math). Retail payments are further off, though nearly 130,000 U.S. merchants already have the ability to accept mobile payments. Carriers and handset manufacturers are still trying to figure out how they are going to get paid, and the solution to this dilemma is still in progress.

• Retail solutions. Although retail payment will not be a reality in 2010, loyalty programs should thrive. Our JCPenney client has already launched a test allowing users to redeem coupons at retail stores through scanned barcodes. Starbucks is doing the same. As consumers redeem coupons and track their loyalty points by phone, smart retailers will use that data to their advantage. If tied back correctly to a customer record, the marketing opportunities are boundless.

We may not look back at 2010 as the year that mobile came of age, but we won’t be able to overlook its significance. There’s lots of behind-the-scenes work to be accomplished – as smart brands aim to finalize their mobile strategies, enable their sites for the incoming hordes of mobile Web users and plan for being at the forefront of our ever-evolving mobile society.

Editor’s note: T3 looks forward to 2010 in a series of blog posts that offer insight on marketing trends over the next year.

As we head toward 2010, it is becoming clearer than ever that the days of getting your feet wet in social media are over. It’s time to jump in.

Social media is where digital was about 10 years ago. Everyone sees the potential, many have jumped in, but there’s still a familiar you-go-first trepidation about getting in without the defined benchmarks traditionally used to measure success.

Many brands already understand that the changing landscape calls for a shift in expectations, along with the continued shift of media dollars into digital and social. Now we’re beginning to see real adjustments in how a company’s organizational structure is shifting to maintain a social presence.

A key piece of advice we give to clients is to define social as a channel, not a campaign. Any successful social approach requires an ongoing commitment to the conversation. It also requires an appreciation that the best social channels are two-way and need to be managed for information to be facilitated and shared.

The social channel has its own set of social rules. It is a conversation and not an ad pitch disguised in digital dialog. How a brand shares information (tone, presentation, humor, interactivity) is as crucial as what information is shared. It’s like body language that way—the non-verbal cues are powerful in getting people to be interested and engaged in what you have to say.

As a result, brands need to really get inside the heads of their audiences. What is successful for one company may be flat-out wrong for another. With different brands come different values and goals. Some clients will find that social programs are best used to collect information about their customers, while others may use it to announce new product lines.

Clients should be asking, and agencies should be prepared to help define:

• How do you provide solid reasons for being involved? (What is the value of a “friend”?)
• How do you analyze the effectiveness of your efforts while industry-standard benchmarks are still being formed?
• How do we define what elements are of most value to your brand?
• How do you attribute “ROI” to your efforts?  (Perhaps that should be reframed as ROE: Return on Engagement?)
• How do you get upper management to not just buy in, but embrace the cause?

Social media is a uniquely powerful way for clients to give customers a consistent voice. It is another means to help delight those customers—whether they are raving about something they love about your brand or ranting about something they wish you’d do better.

It starts with creating new definitions of measurable success and avoiding the trap of retrofitting social programs purely into existing benchmarks. A better measure will be a mash-up: some of your proven brand perception measures mixed with newer approaches. Rather than looking for what the other guys are doing, find what works for your customers and your brands and then fine tune it. The commitment to shift the thinking and redefine what success looks like will be worth it.